[DavidC]

Hey guys, please let me tell you a story about a hand dealt in a private game at the Bellagio. It's a Limit Holdem game, with stakes of $500/$1000:

--

I'm dealt T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]o. I've been drinking a bit, and before you know it, I'm at the flop, heads-up and out of position with one opponent, who has A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. The pot is 8SB... I come to my senses and decide to play perfect poker.

Flop comes up 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

As the dealer was flopping the cards, he fumbled the deck, and revealed the remaining T's, 9's, and aces. The floorman was call over, who decided to light them on fire with his zippo, before tossing them into a trash can.

We complained that there were fewer cards in the deck now, so he brought over 8 jokers and put them in the deck, and had the deck reshuffled. The jokers can be turned up on the turn and river, just like regular cards, except that neither player can use them for anything, nor do they affect the board. They're just blanks.

Now, our opponent is 100% predictable, because he's a computer program with perfect circuitry. I know, I know, it's weird, but I hang out with a pretty crazy group of guys.

His name is Silicon Slim, and he's very predictable. He will play his hand in the following manner: He'll bet at every opportunity until he's raised. As soon as he's raised once throughout the course of the hand, he'll call down or check down: he's vulnerable to a single checkraise. If I bet at him at any point during the hand, he'l just call down for the rest of the hand.

Since I was the one who put up such a complaint about the burnt cards, the floorman rules that I'm not allowed to bet out on the flop. I can only check, or open-muck, if I choose.

So I check the flop to Slim, he bets, and I cleverly go for my raise... However, I fumble a few chips, and the dealer calls it a string-raise. I protest, the floorman threatens me with the zippo, and I calm down promptly. It's been judged that I've called the flop bet.

I'm planning to therefore chase my draw, checkraise if I hit, as soon as I hit, and fold the river if I miss.

I know this has been a long story, so I'll only ask a quick question: How much money do I expect to make or lose from the flop forward in this hand (including my flop call)?

I can't really remember what happened before the flop... it's possible that the dealer was putting in for me out of his chip tray or something, so we can't really count the preflop as part of the EV on the hand. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Anyways, any help would be appreciated.

Sincerely,
DavidC.