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Old 03-26-2002, 08:38 AM
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Default Re: I\'ll bet you lose if you keep it up for a year



In my experience (2 yrs of e-mini trading) it is very hard to make money doing what you are doing.


Why?


1. Your strategy--scalping for 1 handle-- basically involves "picking up quarters on a railroad track" Random events--ie news, entry of big buyers and sellers into market, etc--that are difficult if not impossible to anticipate and model can kill you.


2. Even if you are not blown up by random events, you can easily be blown up by not limiting losses. My experience in trading the eminis is paradoxical. On one hand, you need to limit losses if you are really just scalping. On the other, there is so much noise in the market that it is extremely tempting to give yourself more room. This can be fatal. My experience is that you cannot make up for a few large losses with many small wins. Some people can, perhaps. I cannot. The psychological grind alone can really wear you down.


3. Psychologically, there is a tendency to overtrade e-minis. (I have long thought of them as the crack cocaine of the retail financial markets.) This has two effects. First, the transaction costs can mount very quickly. Second, and more important in my opinion, there is a tendency to "go on tilt", ie to start scalping more aggressively and probably more irrationally when you are losing. This can be fatal.


I don't want anything that I have written to be construed as trying to discourage you. Trading eminis IS fun, and you CAN actually make money. You can also ruin your eyesight, your mood, and your bank account if you approach it in the wrong way. Be careful!
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