Thread: A/K vs QQ
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Old 06-06-2003, 02:11 AM
Cyrus Cyrus is offline
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Default AK v QQ

The original question seemed clear enough to me ("What is the % chance of A/K matching either the A or K on the turn and river?"). The poster however had "A/K vs QQ" in his post's title. So, I guess, this could be interpreted two ways : We want the chance of hitting our AK (1) not knowing our opponent holds QQ, and (2) knowing our opponent holds QQ.

The probability for the first case, where we don't know anything actually about our opponent's hand, was provided above, and is 24.1%. The whole Table in the "Addendum" post, in fact, is based on ignoring what our opponent holds. Which is the usual situation at the tables.

The probability for the second case is indeed higher than the first, because we know that our opponent holds QQ which means he holds neither Ace nor King! The probability, of our AK hitting the Turn and/or the River, is actually the same whether our opponent holds QQ or J5. No matter what he holds, as long as he doesn't have A or K.

Thanks to Jimbo for helping me clarifying this.

--Cyrus

PS : AK is of course a dog against QQ in the situation we examine, i.e. when neither has hit the flop. With a raggedy flop that helps neither hand, e.g. 9 6 3 rainbow, QQ is a 3.2:1 favorite against AKo, and 2.5:1 against AKs.
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