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Old 09-25-2005, 02:30 PM
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Default Re: \"non-random\" raffle on Empire..what are the odds

I would have thought the same, however OP did a sample of a large tournament and came up with 13.8% that fall in the range, which comes out to about 1 in 380 million odd.

If anyone is interested, here are two ways this mistake could have happened.

1. Database query.

It's possible they used a software program to do a query on their player database, but either the function they used or the array they put the data into could only hold 32,000 or 64,000 names. This is common for certain databases and query programs. Given the 13% figure, and the fact that they probably have in the order of several hundred thousand to a million players in their database, you can see how the numbers match up.

2. They selected 10 random numbers using an RNG and matched them with player IDs

An RNG usually returns a number between 0 and 1, which is the mulitiplied by whatever you wish to get a random number range. For example, if you wish to get random numbers from 1-10, you multiply the output of the RNG by 10. It's possible that someone missed a digit in the mulitplier (say 54284 instead of 542874), then you'd only get around the first 10% of names selected.

If there is 10,000 to 1 chance of someone making a mistake like this (and having spoken to customer service, I'd say that's quite conservative), then it's around 38,000 to 1 this is mistake and not a random fluctuation (using Owl's numbers).

Case closed as far as I'm concerned.
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