[dfscott]

I know ICM is far from perfect, but this particular situation surprised me:

Button ( t1635 )
Me ( t5730 )
BB ( t635 )
Blinds(50/100)

I have JJ, and button folds.

I felt like this was a no-brainer push, but ICM declared it to be marginal, based on the range I put BB on (he was very tight, so I put him calling on 77+, A9+).

Any thoughts about why this is? Is it because ICM only considers percentage of the prize pool and not the fact that there are actually points in the tournament where you are guaranteed a certain payout (i.e., if you knock this guy out, you now have 2nd locked)?

Looking at the possible outcomes:

1) You push, he folds (90%). The 150 chips you get aren't worth that much to you, nor does the loss hurt your opponent that much.
2) You push, he calls, your jacks hold up (6%). Great result for you -- you're guaranteed 2nd.
3) You push, he calls, he doubles up (4%). Bad for you, but not too bad -- he's still short-stacked.

Perhaps because the chance of #1 is so great, and it's such a "blah" result is why it's a marginal play?