[bluefeet]

...that's the beauty of your push -- it's irregardless of your read, or his own understanding of his table-image. your telling him "hey buddy, i know your tight, and i respect your game. but i gotta monster here - i HIGHLY suggest you step down". your push is putting HIS tourney on the line at this moment. i think you'd be astonished to see what he would in fact lay down (TT, AK, maybe even JJ). put yourself in his shoes. what hand would you step in the middle of with shortie about to bubble? certainly there is some risk. AA, KK, QQ, etc. aren't going to be folded. [insert smart persons knowledge of total starting hands vs. these hands % info] -- pretty safe to say he ain't got'm. you're standing to pick up a bunch of chips, positioning yourself nicely for a 1st.

Edit: "it's irregardless of your read"...in fact it is more so BECAUSE of your read. i'd be less inclined to try this with a defiant maniac that stands to call you with any two -- thus creating the 'race' you're trying to avoid.