Re: calculating probability and odds for flush draws
No to your 4 flush on the flop percentage. Here's a different way of looking at it. Calculate the odds that you DON'T make the flush, then subtract them from 1.
If you're not going to make it, there are 47 - 9 cards that can come in any order on the turn and the river...because neither of your flush cards can come. So you need the number of possible combinations of turn/river and the number of combinations for those 38 cards.
Total Combinations = 47 C 2
Total Non-Flush Combinations: 38 C 2
47 C 2 = 1081
38 C 2 = 703
Odds = 703/1081 that you won't make it.
therefore
Odds = 378/1081 that you will make it, or basically 35% or 1.86 to 1.
With only one card to come and a flush draw, you don't really need math, there's 9 "outs" in 46 cards so it's 9/46 or ~19.6% or 4.1 to 1.
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