Re: Higher flush probabilities Hold Em
Suppose you are in the BB with 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Everyone at the table with any two suited cards comes to play (including junk like 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], and also of course whatever other random hands they come with). The flop comes with 2 hearts, so obviously now the other hands with two hearts stay, and you also stay. By the river suppose its down to just you and one opponent, say the button, and the flush comes. Do you bet?
Assume the button will always raise any flush (this is worst case, the button may not raise with a crappy 5 high flush). What percentage of the time does he have to call with a worse hand to make the river bet profitable?
There are 7 higher flushes, so 23.8% you will be raised (you call and lose 2BB). He calls X% and you win 1BB.
1*x - 2*.238 >= 0
x must be >= 47.6%
x will be lower if not everyone comes with their crazy suited cards, or people don't raise with their very low flushes. Also this is for when you have the worst possible flush, most of the time you'll have a much better flush then 3 high.
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