[irchans]

Calculating the probability of floping a 4-straight is trickier. My ruff estimate is 11%. The exact probability of either a 4-straight or a 4-flush is trickier still. My ruff estimate is 20%. This brings up a few other interesting questions.

When faced with a tricky probability problem like this one, what is the quickest way to estimate the answer? What is the quickest way to get the exact answer? What method is the most likely to be correct (least likely to have a human error)?