Re: house
Two pair to full is 22.3-1 by the turn and 11-1 by the river.
I don't think this is right...
Assuming it's two pair on the flop (4 outs to the boat)
isn't it 43:4 (or 10.75:1 or about 8.5%) to fill up on turn and 42:4 or 10.5:1 or about 8.7% to fill up on river (assuming you didn't fill up on turn)
So the chances of NOT filling up by the river would be
91.5%*91.3% or about 83.5%. (16.5% chance of getting boat or better by the river)
My quick and dirty "at the table" estimator is approx. 2% per out for each street.
So 4 outs would be about 8% on turn and 8% on river or about 16% by the end.
This isn't exact, but it usually gives me enough info to decide how to proceed (fold, call, bet, raise)
I hope this is right, if it's not, i'm sure i'll hear about it on this forum. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
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