[rusty JEDI]

Hello probability forum.
I am a bonus whore and am interested in clearing bonus money quickly. At stars a 1/2 game has to reach $15 to count as an fpp, and I want to gain these as quick as possible. I understand i should be trying to find a good game and play optimally but id rather do that at sites im established at already with player notes and what not.

So here is what im looking for. The site tells you the average pot size. Now i want to use Z scores to find out the probability that a pot average of X will hit this magic $15 pot. My question is can i assume pot size is normally distributed. And to standardize it without watching a whole bunch of pots, is there a good guess on what to use as the standard deviation.

So, are holdem pots normally distributed, and what is a good guess for the standard deviation.

Thanks