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So while those ~200 tournaments is a very small sample for ROI, I'm not sure it's that small for bubble +/- (is it for ITM?)

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200 is still way too small for this. I'm pretty confident you won't be able to keep up 85%.

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How small is 200 for ITM? I was under the impression that ITM converges much faster than ROI, and this seems fairly similar to ITM. But mainly what struck me was that it has remained pretty constant throughout that time.

Anyway, if the 2+2 style usually converges at say 70%, it seems like someone playing *badly* on the bubble could very easily get 80%. I'm not *trying* to maintain 85% from the bubble, I'm worried it's a sign I'm playing poorly.