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Old 10-31-2003, 09:51 AM
irchans irchans is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 157
Default Unlikely

Estimate of how much you could have won

Assuming that you played mostly 20/40 short handed for 2.5*3 = 7.5 hours, the most that you are likely to have won is

3*sigma*Sqrt[hours]*maxbet
= 3 * 30 * Sqrt[7.5] * 40
= $10,000

(My estimate for sigma is an upper bound based on the fact that heads up play can have an hourly standard deviation of 30 BB per sqrt-hour.)

The probability of winning $10,000 before losing $50 to equally skilled opponents is 0.5%.





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