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Old 05-18-2005, 07:25 PM
curtains curtains is offline
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Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 240
Default Re: 55 on the bubble

Folding is really quite terrible in the 2nd hand. Your analysis seems to be based on random instinct and no concrete math, which is basically what this stage of a sit and go is all about.

If you turned your 55 faceup, it's +CHIP EV to push with about 2900 in chips. You have 1200 chips, this isn't a remotely close decision. Constantly folding hands like this will cost you a lot of money in the long run.

Of course chip EV is not the only thing to come into play, however the discrepency here is too large. If you put everyone on an unrealistically loose calling range, then its breakeven according to eastbay's program. Using normalish ranges its +EV by about .3-.8 depending on the ranges.
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