[Siegmund]

In your situation, folding is probably a little bit better than calling (you're getting 6:2 or 7:2 to call now and will be getting 4:1 or 5:1 on the turn), and if you raise the first bettor might fold rather than call two more. The decision is clearer when the flop hasn't already been raised ahead of you.


Let's suppose 3 of you see the flop, it's bet and *called* to you. There is 50 on the table, you can call or raise.

If you call:

3BB on the turn. 19% of the time you'll hit; let's say you are +4BB when that happens. the other 81% of the time, let's say it is bet and folded to you, so you're offered 4:1 to draw again and essentially break even. Your net: you are paying 1SB on the flop to win an average of 0.76 BB = 1.52 SB later. Calling is better than folding, as we know.

If you raise, and everyone calls:

4.5BB on the turn. 19% of the time you will hit, call those +5.5BB profits. 81% of the time let's say it is bet and folded to you and you have 5.5:1 to take another card off, about a +0.3BB position for you. Now you are paying 2SB on the flop to get 1.29BB=2.58SB later. A tiny improvement.

Now let's suppose FOUR people see the flop, and it's bet-call-call to you. 7:1 pot odds.

If you call: 4BB on the turn, 19% chance you hit and win +5BB on average; 81% chance you draw with 5:1 odds, +0.14BB onaverage; net +1.06BB=+2.12SB return on a 1SB investment.

If you raise and it's called around: 6BB on the turn. 19% chance you hit and win +7BB on average; 81% chance you draw with 7:1 odds, +0.52BB on average; net 1.75BB=3.50SB return on 2SB investment.

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Basically there are two decisions going on at each turn: comparing odds against improving on the next card vs. pot odds to decide if calling makes sense, and compaing odds of winning the final pot vs. number of expected callers if you raise to decide if raising makes sense.