[Oblivious]

So Im taking this probability course, and Id like to tackle some holdem problems for exercize. These exercizes are mostly combinitorical, and I can elaborate upon request.

Should I limp with 33?

Lets say for the sake of argument the answer would be 'yes' povided you will flop a set. The probablility of flopping a set (according to my calculations) is:

(2,1)(49,2)/(50,3) =6/50 ...pronounced "2 choose 1, times 49 choose 2, devided by 50 choose 3"

6/50 = 1/8.33333 so pot odds require us to be playing against at least 8 other players on the first betting round. This doesnt take into account implied odds however. If we expect to be able to take 8*(cost to limp) out of the game on that hand, then limping is profitable. For example: 2 limpers to me on the button with 33. I limp, SB completes, BB checks. Thats 4*(cost of limping) I flop my set, first limper bets out, second limper calls, I raise, and the limpers call behind me. Thats the other 4*(cost of limping), regarless of what the blinds do. This of course assumes that my set of 3s is good.

So if i believe my small pairs are going to be played >4 handed, its likely Ill be able to get enough out of the hand to make limping profitable. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]