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Old 01-24-2005, 08:19 PM
Phil Van Sexton Phil Van Sexton is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 18
Default Re: push or fold under 10 bb\'s rule

I don't follow the 10xBB rule and the linked post is a great example of why it shouldn't be taken as gospel.

The poster had 2900 with a BB of 400. That's about 7xBB. The SB has 3300 and the BB has 1700. Betting 900 with A6 is a great play against most 10/1 players (I think betting 1000 is slightly better). He wants to avoid a war with the SB, but puts the BB to the test for all his chips. When the SB pushes, this is clear indicator that his A6 is no good. If the SB had folded and the BB pushed, it's an easy call.

The apparent problem is that his fold leaves him with only 5xBB. This seems terrible, but is it? He still has 25% of the chips in play. He still has the 2nd biggest stack. He still has plenty of folding equity, even against the big stack, because 1 double-up will give him the chip lead.

Contrast this with having 5xBB when the BB is 100. Now you have only 500, which is pocket change for the big stacks, and not intimidating to the medium stacks.

Therefore, you shouldn't compute your folding equity simply by counting multiples of the BB. Instead, you should compare your stack to the other stacks and to the BB.

Maybe the 900 bet in the example is basically a min raise, but I doubt the BB considers it "small" or "weak" when it will cost him 50+% of his chips to call.

My "strategy" is to bet the smallest amount possible that will get the BB to fold. If the BB is Irieguy or ZeeJustin, this amount is likely to be equal to my entire stack. The original post was about 10/1 where you will rarely see these types of players.

Remember when you see advice from great players like Strassa, they are playing against more aggressive opponents, and there are more chips in play (since the higher tournament start with 1000). Because of this, small raises to 400 or 600 do not get the job done, and therefore pushing is usually the correct play. At 30/3 and below, this is not necessarily the case.

That's probably a separate discussion. My main point is: sizing raises based on the 10xBB rule is not correct. Just like any "system", it's decent for beginners and often comes up with the correct decision by accident, but I think your results will improve if you take more factors into account than the amount of BBs you have left.
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