[midas]

Here is the issue with SIRI - its tremdously overvalued now at 72X revenue compared to Enterprise Value (Market Cap + Debt - cash). Over the next 4-5 months there will probably be no real news that could impact this ridiculous valuation so the stock will move on trader activity. As the Stern move nears the subs will start to increase. Stern diehards (like me) will probably move early in November to avoid a shortage of product with the rest of the fans switching over in the next month. Some cheap Stern fans will hold out for a while but then switch when they realize there is nothing else. I expect the peak of the Stern new sub impact to hit around June of 2006. The only reason that I haven't bought my lifetime subscription is that I'm hoping to see a Walkman like unit similar to XM's. I'm predicting a few major changes for the Stern audience that will be great. In order to satisfy the audience in different time zones, Howard will have at least 2-3 time shifted broadcasts going on at once. Also, I'll bet these shows will continue all day through afternoon drive - this will be a huge blow to normal radio because Howard was never on in the afternoon drive slot.

Regarding ads, Howard has been downplaying the ad thing but there will be ads. National male targeted products (poker, beer, etc.) will be all over this show.

Trading tips - I think the Howard move is already in the valuation of SIRI but there may be some spikes in early 2006. If you think Howard is going to revolutionize radio - short XM and and the rest of the radio concentrated stocks (Clear Channel).