Re: $50+5 Bubble Call
It's my opinion that people generally make big mistakes by calling huge raises with the big stack on the bubble. True--you are getting a little better than 2:1 on your T-chips, but as chipleader you are getting much less than that equity-wise...I have a feeling it's more like 3:2.
Given that, let's say 1/2 the time you are a coin flip, the other half you are a 40:60 underdog. I'd say this is pretty generous for your case. If you are getting 3:2 on your money, then by not making the call you lose 5% of the equity value of the pot had you called. The pot is probably worth an even money shot between 1st and 2nd, i.e, $200. So, you'll probably lose less than $10 EV by throwing your hand away. The reason I would fold, though, is that a) you will probably gain more than $10 EV in the next two dozen hands, and b) your standard deviation is significantly reduced.
joshzero
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