[uuDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, if you are saying Aces are more likely to be held by someone if the hand goes to the river (which I agree), then isn't it just as likely that that less-valued cards were mucked by the hands that folded before the river?


[/ QUOTE ]

Well if you agree that more aces are in player's hands, and therefore fewer show up on the river, don't you also have to agree that there must be more low-value cards on the river? Decreasing the number of one kind of card must be counterbalanced by increasing another, right?

If we follow what happens to low value cards, we should be able to arrive at the same conclusions. Here is a rough argument:

[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]People tend to fold low value cards.
[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]The river was dealt, so people did not fold.
[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]If people did not fold, low value cards were not folded.
[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]If low value cards were not folded, there are more left in the deck.
[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]If there are more left in the deck, more will show up on the river.
[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]If more low-value cards show up, fewer high-value cards will show up.

This is the same situation as before.