[Bozeman]

I didn't think so at the time, but you guys are right.

I did (apparently incorrectly) think that BB would check down a fair number of hands. Given his play, I am surprised he didn't put me allin preflop. If this happens, I have enough chips left to compete for 3rd if I win my next BB.

I also thought since my cards were unlikely to be in UTG's hand that I could win a fair number of hands where he beat the BB (because neither hit).

I alos correctly guessed that SB would fold a fair number of this type of hands.

However, I think I underestimated my chances of 3rd if I folded and UTG won.

I think winning this hand gives me ~$250, BB winning ~$200, beating BB but losing to UTG ~100-140. Folding gives me 225 or 100-140. However, there are only about 14% of the hands UTG would win headsup that he now loses, so I am better off taking a chance later. I get about $145-150 for calling, but 150-170 for folding if I assume SB will always drop. Add in the few good hands he will definitely call or raise with, and it is a bad call.

Or alternatively, chance of 4th is about 58%*50%=29% when I fold, and 26%+9%=35% when I call, which is not compensated for by the few 2nd's.

(As it happened, I won the hand, managed to beat out BB, and got up to even headsup, but took 2nd with A6o vs. 33)

Thanks,
Craig