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Old 02-09-2004, 07:04 PM
M.B.E. M.B.E. is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Vancouver, B.C.
Posts: 1,552
Default Re: What do you think of this play?

Suppose you fold preflop. Now if UTG wins this hand he will have either 688 (if SB folds preflop) or 732 (if SB calls/raises preflop). Do I have that right? Then on the next hand he will have to post a 400 BB while you will be under the gun. You can play that hand if you get something good, although if you play it and lose you will be fourth. If you fold that hand, it's likely that one of the other players will put the BB all in. So basically that guy needs to win two in a row or else he will be out in fourth place, and all you have to do is fold twice. What's the probability of his winning two in a row? Maybe about 30% (considering that he's just raised so his current hand is above average).

If you call now, your 75o is probably a 64:36 underdog against the short stack, but it's worse for you if the short stack has a suited connector like 98s. It's much worse for you if he has a pocket pair greater than sixes or a dominating hand like K5. Of course even if UTG's hand beats you, one of the blinds could still beat both of you, which is okay for you since you'll then get third place. Also, by my calculations if the short stack beats you but one of the blinds comes in and you beat him, then you'll have 754 chips while the short stack will have 732 and be taking the big blind. It's just that 75o is such a terrible hand. Let's ignore the short stack and assume that one of the blinds moves you in preflop with any two cards. Against one random hand you're about 40%. If both blinds come in with random cards, you're only about 26% to beat both of them.

All in all, it seems to me that if you call here, there will be a 45-50% chance of you're finishing fourth. Whereas if you fold the next two hands, it's just a 30-35% chance that you finish fourth. Of course your chance of first or second place will be greater if you call now with the 75o. But your chance of first is slim whatever you do.

I'm too lazy to work this through further, but based on the above reasoning it seems to me you should fold.
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