Re: Using combinations to calculate odds
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Thanks for the reply, and I follow that logic, but now say you get AA. How would you use a combination from there on out to calculate the odds of A)flopping a set, B)improving on the turn, or C)improving on the river?
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These just take a little thought and some practice:
For A) C(2,1)*C(48,2)/C(50,3)=0.1151 or 7.69:1
Where
C(2,1)= # ways to choose 1 ace from the 2 remaining
C(48,2)= # ways to choose 2 other flop cards from the 48 remaining non-aces
C(50,3)= total # ways to choose 3 flop cards
So this is the probability of flopping precisely a set but not quads.
P(flopping quads)=C(2,2)*C(48,1)/C(50,3)=.002449
Adding this to the first value gives
P(set or quads)=.11755 or odds of 7.51:1 and this is the number you most often see.
I'll let you try B) and C)
Use the combin() function in Excel to simplify the calculations.
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