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Old 09-29-2004, 04:01 AM
uuDevil uuDevil is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Remembering P. Tillman
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Default Re: Using combinations to calculate odds

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the reply, and I follow that logic, but now say you get AA. How would you use a combination from there on out to calculate the odds of A)flopping a set, B)improving on the turn, or C)improving on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

These just take a little thought and some practice:

For A) C(2,1)*C(48,2)/C(50,3)=0.1151 or 7.69:1

Where
C(2,1)= # ways to choose 1 ace from the 2 remaining
C(48,2)= # ways to choose 2 other flop cards from the 48 remaining non-aces
C(50,3)= total # ways to choose 3 flop cards

So this is the probability of flopping precisely a set but not quads.

P(flopping quads)=C(2,2)*C(48,1)/C(50,3)=.002449

Adding this to the first value gives

P(set or quads)=.11755 or odds of 7.51:1 and this is the number you most often see.

I'll let you try B) and C)

Use the combin() function in Excel to simplify the calculations.
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