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Old 07-23-2005, 09:26 PM
ilya ilya is offline
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: Party Poker
Posts: 460
Default Re: How am I supposed to know that this is +EV?

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There is trash, and then there is pushable trash like 87o.

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I L'edMAO.

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In spots like these, you need to distinguish from a hand like 32o and a hand like T2o.

T2o is an autoshove, while 32o is a fold.

There's a world of difference between a hand like 87o and 53o. This is the spot where it becomes obvious how much better a hand 87o is.

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Hand 1: 33.9305 % [ 00.34 00.00 ] { 32o }
Hand 2: 66.0695 % [ 00.66 00.00 ] { AQo }

Hand 1: 37.2705 % [ 00.37 00.00 ] { 87o }
Hand 2: 62.7295 % [ 00.63 00.00 ] { AQo }

Hand 1: 36.1513 % [ 00.36 00.00 ] { 53o }
Hand 2: 63.8487 % [ 00.64 00.00 ] { AQo }

Hand 1: 31.5222 % [ 00.31 00.00 ] { T2o }
Hand 2: 68.4778 % [ 00.68 00.00 ] { AQo }

There's isn't so much of a difference between the hands you mentioned. FWIW, ICM says this is a spot where I should be pushing w/ any 2 cards.

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The glaring flaw in your analysis is that your opponent's call range isn't

"AQ."

Against a loose calling range, the difference between 87o and 32o might be as much as much as 35% vs. 30%. Also, holding an 8 and a 7 makes it somewhat less likely that your opponent will have a calling-caliber hand than holding a 3 and a 2.
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