</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
I'm not sure where you got 60% from, but I think it's wrong to assume those will be the only call possibilities.
Some people will call with overcards, as well as other hands, putting you on a "feeler bet" which is basically what you're doing.
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It's a jack-high flop, so the only hands anyone could have containing overcards are AK, AQ, and KQ. If someone had one of those, they would likely have raised preflop. And in no-limit, most players are not going to call a reasonable-size flop bet with just overcards.
(If instead of J-8-4 the flop was something like 9-8-4 I'm not going to bet my 82 because now it is likely that my opponents have overcards, and may call with them.)
</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
Then you're looking at the turn card (probably another no-helper), now there's more money in the pot, and you're wondering if this guy called as a slowplay or if he's chasing your chase. Then what? Now you're tempted to dig a deeper hole, and your EV calculation doesn't consider that.
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No, my EV calculations assume that if called on the flop I fold to any bet on the turn or river. That may not maximize my EV, but it does give positive EV if my assumptions are correct which I believe they are.