[eastbay]

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With four other people in the pot, it's likely that someone has a J or a heart draw or T9 and I don't think they're going to go away for a bet I feel comfortable making on only 2nd pair, no kicker.

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Suppose there's a 60% probability that at least one of my opponents has a J, a set, two pair, a heart draw, or T9. (Actually I think it's less than 60%.) Also suppose that they will call or raise me with any of those hands. (Actually I think many players will fold the T9 or the flush draw.)

That means that 40% of the time I win T150 while 60% of the time I lose T90. That's positive chip-EV of 6.

If I get my opponents to fold 50% of the time rather than 40%, then the chip-EV is even higher (+30).

Is there anything wrong with my logic here?

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I'm not sure where you got 60% from, but I think it's wrong to assume those will be the only call possibilities.

Some people will call with overcards, as well as other hands, putting you on a "feeler bet" which is basically what you're doing. Then you're looking at the turn card (probably another no-helper), now there's more money in the pot, and you're wondering if this guy called as a slowplay or if he's chasing your chase. Then what? Now you're tempted to dig a deeper hole, and your EV calculation doesn't consider that.

With 4 in, I just get out of the way here. With 3 or 2, I might make a bigger bet than you proposed.

eastbay