[ColdestCall]

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I am most interested in the evaluation of the Chip Leaders call of my ALL-IN for 8500 more. I figure by the time he has to make his decision there is 25300 in the pot (Antes 1000 + UTG ALL-IN 5100 + Chip Leaders Call 5100 + Small Blind 500 + HEROs ALL-IN 13600). He needs 8500 to call. The pot odds are roughly 3 to 1. He has only over cards and has got to figure he is up against an A or a Pair. In either case he needs atleast a K or Q to improve. 5 Handed there are 10 cards dealt out leaving 42. He has 6 outs to improve. 42/6 the odds are 6 to 1 on him improving. (?) He is 6-to-1 to improve and the pot was only offering 3-to-1 ------> HIS CALL WAS INCORRECT?
Pot Luck

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Ok, outside of payout and blind structure considerations I already asked about, lets take a look at this. There are 10 cards dealt out, but big stack only know what 2 of them are. So there are 50 unseen cards, not 42. Of those 50 cards, 6 improve him and 44 do not. This DOES NOT mean that his odds of improving are 44/6, or 7.3 to 1, or however you were calculating it above, because he is seeing more than one card. In fact, since everyone is all-in, he is seeing five. He will make a pair on the flop around a third of the time, and a pair in five cards around half of the time. Which is also not terribly important in this situation. What is important here is how often he can expect to win with KQo against two opponents holding an underpair and an A/undercard respectively, and it turns out that he can expect to win around 33% of the time. Moreover, there are a number of combinations where he will lose to small stacks hand, but beat yours, which improve his odds further. Plus, he is the chip leader who will not be crippled by losing this hand, but will be in commanding position to win the tournament if he wins it. His call was correct.