[microlimitaddict]

the previous thread seemed to stray a little bit from my initial premise (that's okay....that's what message boards are supposed to do) and I thought of another, potentially more convincing, example. I submit it with all due respect to Jimbo and other nay-sayers who certainly know whereof they speak and clearly have significantly more poker knowledge than yours truly. I am a newcomer to the game, and have admittedly little experience dabbling in this stuff yet still remain convinced there may be alternate theories out there. for those who tired of this topic on this first go-round i sincerely apologize and humble ask for your indulgence.

Okay here goes -

Scenario -
3 players at table
AK, 77, pre-flop fold

conventional wisdom tells us that there are 3 A's remaining in the 50 unknown cards. But is this really the case?? Can we safely assume that the pre-flop fold did not have AA?? He/she had just one A at the most. Thus, what I call the "realistic" odds are now converted to 3 A's among 49 remaining cards to be considered.

The examples in the previous thread that looked at 10 hand HE and 20 hand HE are interesting. But, in fact, I believe that the fewer hands there are on the table, the more each fold tells us. Indeed, if in a 20 handed game we saw 18 folds, there would be a decent chance that all the A's and K's went down with the folds because there is far more room for them to be distributed.

But in a 6-handed game with 4 hands folded...it is pretty unlikely that all the A's and K's are gone because that would mean someone folded AA or KK.

And in a 3-handed game....the 1 fold is pretty easy to make some adjustments to calculations.

Anyway, enough rambling for now...I have convinced myself that it is a somewhat valid theory worthy of further exploration (imo). Naturally, all viewpoints welcome, including those contrarians who think i am a total nut-ball.