[Tater10]

This is a copy and paste from my excel spreadsheet. I hope it's legible.

Here is what i have for each down. You would want to be defense, only by .0029

Down / yards / O_Run / O_Pass / D_Run / D_Pass / O_EV

1 10 68.6% 31.4% 39.8% 60.2% $(0.00290)
2 10 73.3% 26.7% 32.1% 67.9% $(0.42981)
2 9 69.5% 30.5% 35.2% 64.8% $(0.29851)
2 8 70.0% 30.0% 43.3% 56.7% $(0.07825)
2 7 66.3% 33.7% 46.8% 53.2% $0.13005
2 6 65.2% 34.8% 48.3% 51.7% $0.32656
2 5 60.0% 40.0% 50.5% 49.5% $0.46872
2 4 59.7% 40.3% 51.6% 48.4% $0.60710
2 2 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% $1.00000
3 10 81.08% 18.92% 18.92% 81.08% $(0.81945)
3 9 77.80% 22.20% 22.20% 77.80% $(0.73071)
3 8 72.64% 27.36% 27.36% 72.64% $(0.64769)
3 7 73.51% 26.49% 39.30% 60.70% $(0.39843)
3 6 66.40% 33.60% 42.61% 57.39% $(0.17520)
3 5 64.47% 35.53% 44.18% 55.82% $0.03893
3 4 58.00% 42.00% 47.69% 52.31% $0.18798
3 3 56.43% 43.57% 47.72% 52.28% $0.34163
3 2 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% $1.00000
3 1 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% $1.00000
4 6 80.0% 20.0% 20.0% 80.0% $(0.73333)
4 5 66.7% 33.3% 33.3% 66.7% $(0.55556)
4 4 62.5% 37.5% 37.5% 62.5% $(0.37500)
4 3 55.6% 44.4% 44.4% 55.6% $(0.25926)
4 2 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% $(0.16667)
4 1 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% $1.00000


And, here is the strategy I have for 1st and 10 from the 20, with the offense getting 2:1 (still want to be defense by .0247)

Down YTG From O_Run O_Pass D_Run D_Pass Off EV
1 10 20 67.9% 32.1% 42.5% 57.5% $(0.0247)
1 GL 10 68.6% 31.4% 39.8% 60.2% $0.4957
1 GL 9 68.6% 31.4% 45.6% 54.4% $0.7804
1 GL 8 66.3% 33.7% 49.1% 50.9% $1.0455
1 GL 7 65.7% 34.3% 50.8% 49.2% $1.2904
1 GL 6 61.7% 38.3% 52.7% 47.3% $1.4706
1 GL 5 61.9% 38.1% 54.2% 45.8% $1.6354
2 10 20 71.9% 28.1% 34.2% 65.8% $(0.4521)
2 9 19 70.1% 29.9% 35.5% 64.5% $(0.2985)
2 8 18 69.6% 30.4% 42.1% 57.9% $(0.1042)
2 7 17 68.7% 31.3% 42.4% 57.6% $0.1121
2 6 16 71.9% 28.1% 41.0% 59.0% $0.2807
2 5 15 74.6% 25.4% 38.5% 61.5% $0.4522
2 4 14 76.9% 23.1% 38.0% 62.0% $0.6217
2 2 12 91.8% 8.2% 26.5% 73.5% $0.9873
2 GL 10 73.3% 26.7% 32.1% 67.9% $(0.1447)
2 GL 9 69.5% 30.5% 35.2% 64.8% $0.0522
2 GL 8 70.0% 30.0% 43.3% 56.7% $0.3826
2 GL 7 66.3% 33.7% 46.8% 53.2% $0.6951
2 GL 6 65.2% 34.8% 48.3% 51.7% $0.9898
2 GL 5 60.0% 40.0% 50.5% 49.5% $1.2031
2 GL 4 59.7% 40.3% 51.6% 48.4% $1.4106
3 10 20 81.2% 18.8% 18.8% 81.2% $(0.8327)
3 9 19 77.4% 22.6% 22.6% 77.4% $(0.7382)
3 8 18 72.3% 27.7% 27.7% 72.3% $(0.6395)
3 7 17 73.9% 26.1% 36.0% 64.0% $(0.4256)
3 6 16 72.7% 27.3% 36.4% 63.6% $(0.2214)
3 5 15 72.8% 27.2% 36.5% 63.5% $(0.0011)
3 4 14 70.0% 30.0% 38.1% 61.9% $0.2046
3 3 13 68.3% 31.7% 38.9% 61.1% $0.4174
3 2 12 84.2% 15.8% 54.5% 45.5% $0.8017
3 1 11 60.3% 39.7% 28.6% 71.4% $0.9413
3 GL 10 81.1% 18.9% 18.9% 81.1% $(0.7292)
3 GL 9 77.8% 22.2% 22.2% 77.8% $(0.5961)
3 GL 8 72.6% 27.4% 27.4% 72.6% $(0.4715)
3 GL 7 73.5% 26.5% 39.3% 60.7% $(0.0976)
3 GL 6 66.4% 33.6% 42.6% 57.4% $0.2372
3 GL 5 64.5% 35.5% 44.2% 55.8% $0.5584
3 GL 4 58.0% 42.0% 47.7% 52.3% $0.7820
3 GL 3 56.4% 43.6% 47.7% 52.3% $1.0124
4 6 16 85.8% 14.2% 14.2% 85.8% $(0.7862)
4 5 15 74.8% 25.2% 25.2% 74.8% $(0.5918)
4 4 14 69.3% 30.7% 30.7% 69.3% $(0.3854)
4 3 13 62.5% 37.5% 37.5% 62.5% $(0.2066)
4 2 12 57.3% 42.7% 42.7% 57.3% $(0.0375)
4 1 11 78.8% 21.2% 72.0% 28.0% $0.6705
4 GL 6 80.0% 20.0% 20.0% 80.0% $(0.6000)
4 GL 5 66.7% 33.3% 33.3% 66.7% $(0.3333)
4 GL 4 62.5% 37.5% 37.5% 62.5% $(0.0625)
4 GL 3 55.6% 44.4% 44.4% 55.6% $0.1111
4 GL 2 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% $0.2500