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Old 05-20-2005, 09:12 PM
liucipher liucipher is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Seat 6, $11s
Posts: 180
Default Re: Right time to push?

You mean preflop or postflop?

Preflop: It sucks to be that short, but I don't think anyone's folding to a 375 chip push w/ 400 in the pot already. Which sucks, because if you lose this hand, you officially have zero fold equity and you're going to have to just push w/ the next decent hand you get and pray.

Postflop: My gut reaction is "CHIPS IN THE MIDDLE. GIMME GIMME GIMME." But on second thought, I'm checking and hoping for a bet. Level 4 and 7 handed... you're going to need every chip you can get to win this. CO and Button have enough chips that they'll probably take a stab. Just think:

Best case scenario: CO/Button bets with a crap holding drawing to less than 5 outs. You bet and they call because they're pot committed. You win 80% of the time.

Worst case scenario: CO/Button bets with a club draw or better king and calls because they're definitely getting correct odds. You win 65% of the time.

But in the worst case scenario, a high club draw and a better king are probably calling your open push anyway. So you may as well let the weaker hands in and get as much as you can.

I'm confused though. Did you push 375 into a 400 pot or 475 into a 400 pot. If you have 475 I push from the get go just because that is enough to get a club draw to fold.
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