Re: how much do you bet?
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The way I look at that is that is Villians problem and he better consider it. His chance of hitting a 4-flush on the turn or river is ~19% each, but a 4-flush on the turn and river inclusive is 35%. This response was geared to just preventing him from seeing the turn. Wasn't that the question?
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yeah, but that's why don't need to include the prob of hitting on the river in your calculation of the bet size on the flop.
suppose pot = 65 on the flop. Your calc says you should bet at least 35 or your opponent would be correct to call (because at the threshold of 35, he is getting paid 100 if he hits, and he has a 35% of hitting).
but this isn't right unless the opponent knows that you can't put more money in on the turn. for example, lets say you bet 25. then he needs to call 25 to get paid 90 if he hits. but it's still wrong for him to call (even though 25/90<35%) because if he misses on the turn you can stick him for another 50 bet (for example).
he doesn't get to see the river for free if he calls the flop bet. am i misinterpretting something in your post?
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