[Bozeman]

But the chance of the second (& third) person flopping a set is not independent of the other player flopping his set, so even your flop analysis is an overestimate.

This is probably wrong, but 1-44/46*43/45*42/44=12.8% chance that a q flops, 1-43/45*42/44=8.8% that a 7 flops given a q, and 1-42/44=4.5% chance that a 6 flops given the 7,q. Thus if q,7,6's see the flop, they will all get sets ~1 in 2000.

Craig