[IGMorton]

well excuse me for being sophomoric in my first post in this form. jees, other forums at 2+2 welcome a first time poster. have you forgotten the first time you heard the "let's make a deal problem"? it may seem banal to you now, but it still fascinates the masses. why criticize someone for their curiosity?

but, to evaluate the likelyhood of 9 guys having AA, don't you do a decision tree...

ie... assume player 1 has KK.


probability Player 2 might have AA:

=4/50*3/49


probability player 3 might have AA:

if player 1 held no aces

=4/48*3/47

if player 1 held 1 ace

=3/48*2/47


probability player 4 has AA gets much more complicated:

if neither 1 or 2 held an ace

=4/46*4/45

if 1 held an ace

=3/46*2/45

if both held an ace

=2/46*1/45


as you go up the chain of players, you have more conditions to examine... the complex probability grows immensely as you add players.