Re: Is using a Martingale system with a bonus a good idea?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
MArtingaling actually increases your EV slightly, (you are making fewer, but bigger bets) but it also increases your variance exponentially! So if you can withstand the variance then by all means martingale, reverse martingale, martingale+1, martingale +10, whichever...
[/ QUOTE ]
How does it increase EV by increasing your bet size? If you're a 48-52 dog, if you bet $1 you're losing $.02 per bet, if you bet $1000, you're losing $20 per bet, you still lose 2 cents on the dollar.
It seems that with this system, you're just hoping for the variance to bail you out. I think it's based on the gambler's fallacy.
[/ QUOTE ]
For casinos where busting out "forgives" the remainder of your WR (most of them, but not Crypto casinos, for example), betting big does indeed increase your EV. This is because betting big = bigger chance of busting out = smaller WR requirement. However, this is at the cost of higher variance.
One should find a "happy medium" between acceptable variance (depends on your bankroll and your "psychological" bankroll) and WR clearing rate when determining optimal bet size.
|