Re: Is using a Martingale system with a bonus a good idea?
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MArtingaling actually increases your EV slightly, (you are making fewer, but bigger bets) but it also increases your variance exponentially! So if you can withstand the variance then by all means martingale, reverse martingale, martingale+1, martingale +10, whichever...
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How does it increase EV by increasing your bet size? If you're a 48-52 dog, if you bet $1 you're losing $.02 per bet, if you bet $1000, you're losing $20 per bet, you still lose 2 cents on the dollar.
It seems that with this system, you're just hoping for the variance to bail you out. I think it's based on the gambler's fallacy.
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