Re: Poorly Played All the Way or Just Unlucky?
Sorry to say, poorly played.
Preflop, this is a pretty clear fold. Even if the UTG player is so desperate that he would raise here with any two cards, you don't have all that much equity by calling. Since most players need MORE than just any two in this spot, against a typical player I would say you're breaking even with this call, maybe even losing a little.
And all of that ignores the big blind.
Since he has chips, once you flat call, he can now overcall with a lot of hands, as he is getting a shot at 1400 for 400, and will have position on you the rest of the hand. Thus, I think his presence reduces your equity rather than increases it. Because of this, you should fold preflop.
However, if there are a lot of hands you think he would play for 400 more that he will fold for 1000 more, then raise another 600 and get him to fold those hands (if you're going to play at all, I still think a fold is the better choice).
Now the flop comes. Second pair, good kicker. Checking is fine, as long as you're doing so because his check or bet (and the amount thereof) is likely to be informative. Here he makes a very small bet. What does it mean? Is he milking you because he has a big hand, or is he protecting a hand that he thinks is best (even though it's weak, e.g., 88) because he figures you'll fold for 300 as fast as for 1200? Does he assume your check is total weakness, and he's bluffing because he thinks he can do so safely? Personally, against an unknown player, I would think this is most likely a milk bet, and that he thinks he has by far the best hand right now.
Check-raising the turn. The only hand you're now beating that I see calling here is AK and possibly QT or JT. AT and sets don't go away, and I hardly see Ks up folding either. If he's got a hand you're beating, although he could have 12 outs (i.e., AK), he most likely has 2-5 outs, and as such I would prefer to flat call here and induce another bluff on the river. Also, if you call here, and the river is a brick, he might check a hand like Ks up and save you some chips.
I hope you posted this because you won and everybody gave you grief about the hand, rather than because you lost to AT or something.
Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)
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