[gaming_mouse]

This would be very difficult, if not impossible, to calculate by hand. You would first of all need to assume some basic strategy being followed by all players. Given that, you could calculate the chance that an individual player ends up with a wheel.

However, the solution for at least one of five players having the wheel cannot be deduced from the chance that a particular player has the wheel, because the chances of each player having the wheel are not independent, and the dependence is not loose.

I think the only way to get an accurate answer would be to program the strategy being followed by each player, and then run a simulation.

Wish I could be of more help,
gm