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Old 01-24-2005, 06:25 PM
CORed CORed is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 273
Default Re: Tax Time: Are you a professional gambler?

Slot machines use random number generators. The length of time since a particular machine last hit has no effect on the probability of it hitting a jackpot. A progressive jackpot might make a machine +EV if it gets big enough. The trouble is that slot machines are a real "pig in a poke" proposition. You know what the payout is for three triple bars or whatever, but you don't know the probability of that combination coming up, so how big is big enough for a progressive jackpot is pure guesswork. Also, the really big progressive jackpots are often extremely low probability, so, even if you have a +EV in theory, you might play an entire lifetime without actually hitting one. OTOH, progressive jackpots can sometimes create a known +EV for video poker machines, where the probabilities can be calculated. I'm not surprised that the subject of the article had only losses to report. Also, I think grocery store slot machines are usually very tight anyway.
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