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Old 08-15-2005, 08:28 AM
AaronBrown AaronBrown is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 505
Default Re: When opponent is getting \"correct\" odds to draw, why do you bet??

You've got some excellent answers, I'll take a slightly different slant.

Skansky's theorem has to be taken in relation to what you get from straightforward play. You already own positive equity in the pot, whether you collect it plus a bonus or lose it depends on the river card, but you can't affect that.

The question is whether you can eke out additional equity. That can only come from a mistake by your opponent. Not necessarily a true mistake, he may be acting rationally from his point of view, but something he wouldn't do if he could see your cards.

You don't have much scope to do that here, unless he is a complete idiot. You could mutter, "Come on baby, one more heart and I make an Ace high flush!" and hope he folds even if he gets his flush. You could swear, "Another damn Jack high! I should switch to lowball!" and hope he bets even if he misses. Neither one is likely to work, nor are subtler ploys.

But never overlook the opportunity to induce a mistake. Even if it doesn't work, it can set up something for a later hand.
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