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Old 01-20-2003, 10:30 PM
texag97 texag97 is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 8
Default Hold \'Em Odds - Flop->River, Flop->Turn, Turn->River?

I am trying to memorize odds that occur in common hold 'em situations, but before I committ these odds to memory, I want to make sure that I calculated them correctly. The odds are in three parts: 1) odds to complete a flopped hand into a winning hand (taken from Appendix A HPFAP) 2) odds to catch needed card on turn 3) odds to catch needed card on river.

FLOP ODDS IF PLAYED TO RIVER TO COMPLETE HAND
# Outs_____Percentage______Odds
15---------54.1%-----------.85:1 (straight flush)
11---------41.7%-----------1.4:1 (flush draw w/ 2 overcards)
9----------35.0%-----------1.85:1 (flush)
8----------31.5%-----------2.2:1 (open straight)
5----------20.3%-----------4:1 (one pair -> two pair or set)
4----------16.5%-----------5:1 (gutshot straight)
2----------8.4%------------11:1 (pocket pair -> set)
FLOP ODDS
# Outs_____Percentage______Odds
15---------31.9%-----------2.1:1 (straight flush)
11---------23.4%-----------3.3:1 (flush draw w/ 2 overcards)
9----------19.1%-----------4.2:1 (flush)
8----------17.0%-----------4.9:1 (open straight)
5----------10.6%-----------8.4:1 (one pair -> two pair or set)
4----------8.5%------------10.8:1 (gutshot straight)
2----------4.3%------------22:1 (pocket pair -> set)
TURN ODDS
# Outs_____Percentage______Odds
15---------32.6%-----------2.1:1 (straight flush)
11---------23.9%-----------3.2:1 (flush draw w/ 2 overcards)
9----------19.6%-----------4.1:1 (flush)
8----------17.4%-----------4.7:1 (open straight)
5----------10.9%-----------8.2:1 (one pair -> two pair or set)
4----------8.7%------------10.5:1 (gutshot straight)
2----------4.3%------------22.2:1 (pocket pair -> set)

The flop to turn & turn to river odds I calculated as follows:
For Example:
Flush Draw on turn = 9 outs (ideally) 9 cards out of 46 unseen cards make flush. 9/46 = .1956 or 19.6% chance of catching card. Odds = (100 - 19.6)/19.6 = 4.1:1
So in this example, the pot needs to be offering at least 4.1:1 odds to make a call correct? If the pot is offering greater than greater than 8.2:1 odds (let's say 10:1 huge pot) then a raise is positive expectation?

Also, in the first chart, the odds of completing your hand with 15 outs (straight flush draw) are in your favor .85:1, therefore should you maximize the pot (bet, raise or check-raise) on the flop? If you are able to maximize the pot with a straight flush draw, then you should nearly always have sufficient odds to at least call on the turn, correct?

Any suggestions, advice or corrections are needed and welcomed! (Sorry about the format, I don't know HTML)
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