[AaronBrown]

I'd just add that there's about one chance in 1,000 a random individual is so psychotic, they cannot tell reality from fantasy. If you played 25,600 hands with an expected win rate of 5 BB/100 hands and a standard deviation of 16 BB/100 hands, there's only one chance in 3.5 million that you would be behind by the luck of the cards. So, as a Bayesian, you would have to prefer the hypothesis that you were crazy, and too crazy to know it. You'd also have to prefer hypotheses like (a) your win rate is not 5 BB/100 hands, (b) your standard deviation is not 16 BB/100 hands, (c) the hands are not independent, (d) you're being cheated. All of these are much more likely than a bad run of luck.