Re: Card game quiz
Tricky for me to explain, but I'll give it a go.
The dealer has two different decisions he can make:
-Pick between two black cards, leaving another black card on the table - which will happen 33% of the time.
-Pick between a red and a black card, leaving a red card on the table - which will happen 66% of the time.
The dealer is much more likely to leave a red card on the table, since it's more likely that you didn't pick it initially. You'll lose the 33% of the time that you pick the red card initially, and win the 66% of the time that you don't.
That being said, I think my EV calculation was off. Your EV is +$33, so it's a good bet.
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