Re: True Flush Odds?
Suppose you have AsTs, and the flop has 2s 6s 9d. On average, there will be 9/47*18=3.45 spades in you opponents hands. So there will be 5.55 spades left in the deck, which has 29 cards. So you should miss on the turn ~81% of the time, and miss on the river ~80% of the time. So you will make your flush ~35% of the time, for ~1.85 odds against. And the disagreement of this result with the familiar result is an error of this method, not that one ...
Craig
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