[golFUR]

I disagree with the two previous posts saying you should check it. I do think you should bet.

While I realize this easily turns into an endless chain of "paper rock scissors" logic I think my own recent experience backs up my logic here.

First let me note I play at UB, home of the incredibly ridiculous "bet pot" button. I think players are trained differently with this button but the logic is still valid.

You raised preflop from a short stack. He knows you have something. He checked out on the flop but called your bet. He is on a draw of some sort. To give him a free card now is begging him to believe you are incredibly weak, or advertising the fact that you have a nut hand unlikely to be outdrawn. It seems to me lately that they tend to believe the latter more often than the former.

The pot on the flop was 195 chips? You bet 175 into it and he called. His stack wasn't much larger than yours so he felt he was drawing to the nuts or he already has a pretty strong hand and he is slowplaying it. For him to check the turn to you is either a signal that he is done drawing, any bet now is going to take it down, or he has what he believes is a monster and is not going to go away no matter what, a sizeable bet might even get you a reraise. To check behind him now I think would give it all away. You are short stacked, you raised preflop, bet the flop, now you are just going to roll over when he's done nothing to show strength but call behind?

On the turn there is 545 in the pot? Bet 200. It looks like you want the pot but aren't sure its yours anymore. Betting the pot would send him away if he didn't have what he thought was the strongest hand, betting the pot would send him away if he was still drawing. A bet of 200 might be interpreted as a value bet, but its just as likely (in my experience more likely) to be seen as a suddenly too small bet or as a crying bet. He might bluff reraise or call on his draw.

As well, if you check on the turn and he misses his draw on the river, a check to you followed by a sizeable bet will certainly go uncalled. Whereas if he misses his draw on the river, and you send out another bet that seems too small, you give him one more opportunity to misinterpret weakness and perhaps try the bluff.

Two more posts went up while I was typing this, they agree with the check. Let me note that I am writing this from the perspective of "what is most likely to get me the most chips"? If he has nothing, or if he has a weak draw that never hits, the only way to get anything out of him is to induce a bluff. The only way to induce a bluff is to portray a hand that can be bluffed, an overpair or AK. If he has 2nd or 3rd best the only way to get his money is to convince you don't have 1st best. A check on the turn signals that possibility.

"Nobody bets with the nuts, that'd be dumb, it might scare them away." Goes the logic. That is exactly why I bet the nuts, I want to induce big stupid plays. How many times have you had quads that didn't get paid? Or hit a scary flop so hard that you just knew there was no chance of getting paid on it? Its from that perspective I say bet the turn...