[squiffy]

Were the effects of hurricane Katrina "priced into the market"? Of course not, because few people could accurately predict the precise amount of damage which would occur.

But as new information about the potential and actual damage became available, oil prices and timber prices, etc. adjusted to accommodate the new information.

So the fact that the market quickly adjusts, does not mean that the market accurately predicts. Sometimes it does accurately predict, sometimes it does NOT.