[MCS]

Note that daliman's solution assumes the two free throws are uncorrelated, i.e., whether or not Kobe makes the first free throw in no way affects whether he makes the second. This is probably technically untrue, but it's also probably very close to true, so the answer is still going to be around .148*.148 = .022. I just pointed this out because I like being precise, or possibly because I am a math guy, or both.

As daliman said, you would have the best of this bet alone even at 10-1, and possibly even at 45-1.

The "Lakers before Pistons" clause makes it even stronger for you. If we assume that the chance of the Pistons hitting a FT before the Lakers is 50%, that changes your probability of losing the bet to 2.2% times 50%, or 1.1%. That clause means you'd almost certainly have the best of it at say 60-1.

This might be the most lopsided bet I've ever heard.