[sam h]

Well I'm procrastinating on doing some work, so I thought I would provide a little early electoral college analysis. IMHO, here's what we're looking at right now. Note that when I refer to a state as a "lock," I don't mean that there's no way the candidate loses it. I mean that if it shapes up to be any kind of close race, this state is going this way. Personally, I think we're in for a close one. But unpredictable things can happen, though a landslide against Bush seems very unlikely.

Bush Locks (23 for 211 EV)

Alabama 9
Alaska 3
Arizona 10
Colorado 9
Georgia 15
Idaho 4
Indiana 11
Kansas 6
Kentucky 8
Mississippi 6
Montana 3
Nebraska 5
North Carolina 15
North Dakota 3
Ohio 20
Oklahoma 7
South Carolina 8
South Dakota 3
Tennessee 11
Texas 34
Utah 5
Virginia 13
Wyoming 3

Kerry Locks (15 for 210 EV)

California 55
Connecticut 7
Delaware 3
District of Columbia 3
Hawaii 3
Illinois 21
Maryland 10
Massachusetts 12
Minnesota 10
New Jersey 15
New York 31
Pennsylvania 21
Rhode Island 4
Vermont 3
Washington 11

Battlegrounds (13 for 117 EV)

Arkansas 6
Florida 27
New Hampshire 4
Iowa 7
Louisiana 9
Maine 4
Michigan 17
Missouri 11
Nevada 5
New Mexico 5
Oregon 7
West Virginia 5
Wisconsin 10

There are several interesting things to note about this. First is that the conventional wisdom that the Democrats need to win a southern state (not including Florida) to capture the White House seems erroneous. Kerry can win without the south, even theoretically without Florida, though this is fairly unlikely. This really downgrades the attraction of an Edwards VP nod, IMHO. North Carolina seems to be going to Bush anyway. If Kerry wants to try to capture a southern state, his best chance might actually be Louisiana, which makes popular centrist Democratic senator John Breaux a pretty interesting VP candidate.

Interestingly enough, one corollary of this is that being a New Englander may not really hurt Kerry that much. In fact, if he can parlay some sort of regional popularity thing into winning New Hampshire and Maine, that will give him a big boost.

While I have derided Kerry's labor politicing and traditional democratic appeals, the strategy does seem to be pretty sound from an electoral standpoint. Four key states for him are Michigan, Missouri, Wisconsin, and West Virginia. Take those 4 and he's only 17 EV away from winning. Gore won Michigan and Wisconsin, the latter by just a smidgeon. (Kerry is crushing Bush in Wisconsin polls right now, though this is partly a result of the recent primary). Bush won the other two in very close races.

I think Bush has to figure out two things: 1) a way to engage Kerry in these labor heavy mid-western states and 2) a way to lock up Florida. While there might be scenarios where Kerry wins without Florida (though I think this is very unlikely), its pretty tough to imagine Bush doing so.

Go Nevada, dark horse swing state!