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Old 03-17-2005, 07:22 PM
mosquito mosquito is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 45
Default ?? probability of future results ??

Take a hypothetical situation....

Player Able has an established win rate, WR.

Able's WR is expressed as BB/HR or BB/100, whichever
is relevant.

Able's standard deviation (SD) is also expressed in
terms of BB, rather than $$.

Given that, I'd like to be able to predict the probability
of a ceratin result (or greater) over a specific span
of play.

In other words, I'd like a generic function to calculate
the probability of winning (or losing) X BB's over a
specific span Y (HR's or 100's) play, given win (loss)
rate parameters WR and SD.

Help!

Thanks in advance, mosquito.
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