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Old 11-16-2004, 07:35 PM
AngryCola AngryCola is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Wichita
Posts: 999
Default Re: Pot Odds/Effective Odds/Probability Question

An astonishngly basic mistake? I take offense given that your answer is definitely an astonishing common mistake. What you say about 2:1 on the flop and 4:1 on the turn is completely wrong. If you don't want to use effective odds, and just use 1 card odds, it would be 4:1 on the flop and 4:1 on the turn. He is asking about effective odds, please help him out as I am busy today.

Also your post seems to lack an understanding of what effective odds are. I am explaning to him his odds of hitting the flush on both streets. My recomendation is not that he should fold or anything of the like.

What you say makes no sense. You can't be getting 2:1 on the flop and 4:1 on the turn. That just doesn't make sense. You are getting 2:1 for the flop and the turn combined, which is pretty good (a strong draw) that you will almost always have odds to draw to.

4:1 to make it on the turn specifically, and 4:1 to make it on the river. 2:1 to make it by the turn or river. Please, try to at least deal with some of these problems, before going around telling someone the advice they are getting is wrong.

If you tell someone that they are getting 2:1 on the flop, and 4:1 on the turn, you would be very wrong. I'll let others on this forum elabortate. Please, anybody with a knowledge of effective odds (besides myself), help Dave out with his understanding of 2 cards to come odds. I have quoted Sklansky's descritiption of effective odds, and it doesn't quite seem to have sunk in with him. Any other way it could be explained to him, other than what I have tried would be appreciated.

Also, here is a repost of a quote from TOP, for those who are still a little fuzzy on what effective odds are:

"Figuring effective odds may sound complicated, but it is a simple matter of addition. You add all the calls you will have to make, assuming you play to the end, to determine the total amount you will lose if you don't make your hand. Then compare this figure to the total amount you should win if you do make the hand. This total is the money in the pot at the moment plus all future bets you can expect to win, excluding your own future bets. Thus, if there is $100 in the pot at the moment and three more $20 betting rounds, you are getting $160-to-$40. When you think your opponent won't call on the end if your card hits, your effective odds would be reduced to something like $140-$40. If, on early betting rounds, these odds are greater than your chances of making your hand, you are correct to see the hand through to the end. If they are not, you should fold."

[i]-David Sklansky pg.53 of The Theory of Poker[i]
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