[Dave H.]

I posted the following in the Poker Theory forum and was advised to post it here...

I have a thread in the Beginner’s section entitled “Yet Another Pot Odds Question” if anyone would care to refer to it. Mr. AngryCola (whose birthday is today!) has been trying very patiently to explain effective odds and I really thought it would be a great item for the Beginner’s forum. However, in his last post, he did indicate that someone else might need to get involved. I couldn’t think of anywhere else to go but the Poker Theory or Probability forums, so I will try my best to explain my problem and a couple of examples that we were discussing. If this post belongs elsewhere, please let me know. I DESPERATELY want to understand this. I should also mention that I have read and reread and reread (ad nauseam) the section in TOP about effective odds and I'm just not quite getting it.

Initially, with a four flush on the flop, I thought I needed pot odds of about 4:1 to call the next bet. I know that my odds of hitting the fifth flush card WITH TWO CARDS TO COME are about 2:1 so I couldn’t understand whether I needed 2 bets in the pot or 4 bets in the pot to make the call. The way I understand it, I only need 2 bets in the pot BECAUSE I KNOW I AM GOING TO SEE BOTH CARDS, i.e. I am going to the river for sure.

So the question I posed was: if I miss on the turn, do I then need 4 bets in the pot to all, or is it still 2 bets?

The answer I received, as I understood it, is that I need 2 bets, because (...this was the answer I received):
[ QUOTE ]



It's simply a matter of taking your odds for both streets combined, and therefore missing on the turn has no impact on the fact that you will make your flush by the river 1 out of 3 times. Think of the turn card and the river card as a combination. You are calling based on that combination, not the 2 halves of the combination. Get it? The point is your turn call isn't a seperate decision. It is a completion of your flop call. The money you put in on the turn should have already been factored in on the flop, when deciding whether you had odds to see both streets. just because you are throwing money in the pot on the turn does not mean that you are making an odds based decision at that point in time.



[/ QUOTE ]

I thought that the answer would be that I needed 2 bets to see the turn card but, if I missed, I would have to revert to 4 bets to see the river card.

So, given this answer, I tried to carry it further with this example, and I would like someone to PLEASE tell me where I’m going wrong, because it just doesn’t feel right! I’m trying to look at this strictly from a probability standpoint without regard to the texture of the game.

OK, let’s assume there are no cards on the board as yet and that I have been dealt a pocket pair. I know that I have about 4:1 odds to make a set or better by the river. Trying to follow the logic from the four flush above, that says to me that I simply need roughly 4 bets in the pot each time I bet to make my bet a profitable one. If that were the case, especially in microlimit games, it seems it would be a no brainer to bet or call to the river nearly every time I held a pocket pair. Again, that just doesn’t feel right.

Can someone please tell me what I am doing wrong?

Thank you in advance for your help!